Merna, D. Cumulative cash ow diagram. The results of the probability analysis are shown in Figs. The cumulative probability distribution diagram in Fig. Compared with the original prediction of an IRR of Therefore, the project appears to be very risky based on the ranges used in the analysis.
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Merna, D. Cumulative cash ow diagram. The results of the probability analysis are shown in Figs. The cumulative probability distribution diagram in Fig. Compared with the original prediction of an IRR of Therefore, the project appears to be very risky based on the ranges used in the analysis. NPV The cumulative probability distribution diagram in Fig. Cumulative probability distribution diagram IRR.
Cumulative probability diagram IPV. Risk mitigation Mitigation of the identied risks is now carried out. A result of this risk mitigation exercise will be that the ranges of the variables whose risks were mitigated will be reduced.
Then new results will be calculated and depicted in new diagrams after sensitivity and probability analyses. Risk mitigation can be done for all the identied risks:. The negative risk of tobacco production management can be reduced by an extremely thorough search and recruitment drive for a competent and reliable farm manager.
The recruited farm manager must make sure that project management tools like quality management, risk management, human resource management, nance and production management are used and proper planning and implementation of plans and monitoring takes place. The identication of tobacco curing management as a signicant risk requires that special emphasis is made on this activity.
The potential of the tobacco leaf which it possessed at the time of reaping cannot be improved by curing. Curing alters the leaf into a dierent state by yellowing colouring and drying. Bad curing can spoil a potentially good leaf. Therefore only negative risks are allocated to curing management.
The negative range can be reduced by risk mitigation measures, good quality management with a detailed quality plan and work instructions will help. The farm manager must train and closely supervise the people who are working in the curing section. The manager should gather as much knowledge about tobacco curing as possible by consulting experts in tobacco curing. The only risk which can be totally mitigated is the negative risk of destruction of tobacco by hail.
The tobacco farmer can transfer this risk by buying a hail insurance. Typical premiums for hail insurance is approximately 2. The compensation covers the damage of the crop by hail and, together with the farmers salvage operations, should retrieve the cost of production for the next growing season. The premium for the tobacco hail insurance is already included in the cost of production calculation.
The negative risks of weather can be reduced by the construction of an irrigation system to mitigate the impact of droughts. In the case of heavy rains risk mitigation measures to facilitate and control the rain and runo of water are provided by contours, the maintenance of healthy soil in order to guarantee a high inltration rate, to resist harmful rain splash and runo and to produce crops which grow well and thus protect the soil quickly and the building of earth dams and thus reduce the negative risks of weather.
The costs of these mitigation measures are included in the cost of production. The main reason for installing an irrigation system is the addition of a second crop which is planted earlier. The supplementary irrigation of tobacco in dry years should be done with equipment which is normally used for the early crop. Investment in irrigation only for the purpose of eventual supplementary irrigation in drought years is not protable whereas the addition of a second early crop is the major advantage of irrigation.
Therefore, the use of an irrigation system for drought impact mitigation is a welcome side eect of the investment in an irrigation system which will be primarily installed in order to grow a second crop. The negative and positive ranges of the variables tobacco output and paprika output will be equally reduced by a more conservative approach concerning the planned output.
The farmer does not want to expand too quickly and risk that the production management gets out of hand which then would have the consequence of not only lower crop quality but also lower crop output. For the risk of change in interest rates both negative and positive ranges will be equally reduced by negotiating loans and deposits with xed rates of interest.
Loans with xed rates of interest are preferable as the interest to be paid is known and therefore the risk of higher interest payments caused by rising interest rates is avoided. Loans which cannot be negotiated with xed interest rates will be arranged with nancial institutions in foreign countries which are less volatile to changes in interest rates.
The debt service could be paid from a foreign exchange account . A limit on the upward movement of the interest rate cap and a minimum rate of interest oor must be set if loans with variable oating interest rates are negotiated. The cost of setting a cap or a oor normally is between 0. The negative range of the variable direct costs of tobacco and paprika production can be reduced by purchasing machinery, equipment and inputs together with other farmers in order to get discounts, by developing supply options in other countries and by keeping foreign exchange accounts in the host country and in a hard currency country, where this is allowed.
Information on upcoming changes of the labour rates which are often set by government must be gathered and included in the budget calculations. Practices of government interference like the prohibition of the export of capital have been abolished after pressures on the government of many developing countries from the International Monetary Fund IMF and the World Bank to liberalise developing country economies.
The reintroduction of such measures would cause the IMF and World Bank to stop loan payments and therefore would threaten the stability of the host country government which needs loans from these institutions in order to stabilise the economy . In the case of reintroduction of the prohibition of export of capital by the government one could make use of transfer pricing.
Transfer pricing is the adjustment of prices on sales of material between members of a multi-company group so as to distribute nancial burdens between the members in accordance with central nancial policy.
Transfer pricing seems to be an appropriate method to deal with the prohibition of export of capital as it would not be done to evade national taxation and custom duties but to export capital. A company operating in a hard currency country should be founded which is ocially independent of the company owning the farm based in the host country. This new company imports crops and exports machinery, equipment and inputs to the farm company in the host country.
These exports would be invoiced at a price which is higher than the market price. Sensitivity analysis after risk mitigation measures. Sensitivity analysis after risk mitigation measures NPV. Cumulative probability distribution diagram after risk mitigation measures IRR.
The dierence between the market value of the crop and the price paid is the prot for this company supposed it sells the crop for a market price which equals the capital exported through this operation.
Reappraisal after risk mitigation The new results after risk mitigation are depicted in Figs. The diagrams for the sensitivity analysis Figs. As the risk of destruction of tobacco by hail was totally mitigated it is not shown in the sensitivity analysis diagram. The results of probability analysis after risk mitiga- tion are shown in Figs. IRR The cumulative probability distribution in Fig.
The mean value of the IRR of After risk mitigation the project appears to be very promising as it shows a better value for the IRR than the value of the original prediction. NPV The cumulative probability distribution in Fig. Cumulative probability distribution diagram after risk mitigation. The fact that the values of IRR and NPV after risk mitigation are not only better than the values resulting from the probability analyses of IRR and NPV before risk mitigation, but also are better than the original predictions shown in Table 2 , conrms the importance of risk management.
The identication and analysis of risks means that the project manager has to consider the most important risks in the project and to analyse their eect on the economic parameters.
As risk analysis as part of risk management helps the project manager to anticipate and thus control future events with risk mitigation , the manager is not taken by surprise by the occurrence of already identied risks. It must be emphasised that realistic original predictions i. If the risk analysis is based on unrealistic base data the results of risk analysis are not only unrealistic economic parameters but the risk analysis also misleads the investor and the project management by giving the unrealistic base data a sort of scientic approval.
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